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Yet labour markets are softening, the euro zone faces recession and China's property sector is in crisis. Here's what some closely-watched market indicators say about global recession risks:1/ AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM? Britain's economy avoided the start of a recession in the third quarter but still failed to grow. Economists broadly expect the global economy to slow next year but avoid a recession. If supply shocks resulting from the Israel-Hamas war become severe enough to push Brent crude to $150, a level it has never breached, a "mild and fleeting" global recession could result, Oxford Economics reckons.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Guy Miller, COVID, Zurich Insurance's Miller, Torsten Slok, Austria's, David Katimbo, We've, Brent, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Zurich Insurance, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Apollo Global Management, P, Sweden's SBB, HK, Bank of England, Business insolvencies, EdenTree Investment Management, Oxford Economics reckons, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, Zurich, England, Wales, Europe, Israel

☆ Goldilocks meets Santa as global stocks power to best month in three years
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

MSCI's world stock index (.MIWO00000PUS) is set to close the month up around 9%, its best performance since November 2020, when markets cheered the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines. Global bond prices have soared, with an ICE BofA index of global investment-grade bonds in major markets set to return 3.4% in November, the best month on record going back to 1997. Global growth stocks in high-tech sectors are up 11% (.dMIWO0000GNUS) while value stocks, which are mainly in cyclical industries and offer high dividends, have gained 6.5% (.dMIWO0000VNUS). And a cloudier outlook for stocks suggests a divergence could open up between again between stocks and bonds. The broader global index is set to return 1.6% for the year.

Persons: Joshua Roberts, That's, bode, Altaf Kassam, Wall, We've, Guy Miller, Joost Van Leenders, Van Lanschot Kempen, Van Leenders, Kassam, Naomi Rovnick, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Christina Fincher Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, State Street Global Advisors, Traders, Fed, Insurance Group, Equity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, COVID, U.S

☆ What could break under higher-for-longer interest rates?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, the strain from interest rate hikes has just started to come through and with central banks signalling that rates will likely stay higher for longer, the notion of something "breaking" remains strong. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics1/ PROPERTY PAINNowhere is the impact of higher rates being felt more acutely than in real estate, still reeling from COVID-19. "We have many zombie companies in the United States and Europe from the low interest rates era, and I cannot imagine how they can survive now with high interest rates." Still, big question marks remain over their future, not least from a global property rout. Miller noted that European banks are also vulnerable given their bigger size relative to the economy that leaves them more exposed to risks from various pockets.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Heimstaden, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Guy Miller, Miller Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Reuters Graphics Reuters, SBB, China Evergrande, HK, Federal, European Central Bank, Zurich Insurance, The Bank of Japan, Capital, Thomson Locations: Washington, Sweden, Europe, Stockholm, Berlin, CHINA, China, United States, Big U.S

Yet a sharp drawdown in the excess savings created by COVID-19 could be a curve ball that slams into bullish sentiment. U.S. excess savings have fallen to around $500 billion from around $2.1 trillion in August 2021, the San Francisco Federal Reserve estimates. In Europe, Deutsche Bank reckons excess savings in Sweden, struggling to contain a property slump, have dwindled. Reuters GraphicsRUNNING OUTDefinitions for excess savings differ, but economists generally agree that this means savings that went beyond trend levels during the pandemic. Cardano chief economist Shweta Singh said U.S. pandemic excess savings are likely to be depleted by year-end.

Persons: Rachel Adams, Janus Henderson, Oliver Blackbourn, Shweta Singh, Guy Miller, Jamie Dimon, Ben, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Janus Henderson's Blackbourn, U.S . Russell, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Blackbourn, Zurich's Miller, Simon Bell, Guilluame Paillat, Paillat, Naomi Rovnick, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Oxford, REUTERS, San Francisco Federal, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Insurance Group, Ryanair, JPMorgan, Unilever, U.S ., London's, Bank of, Aviva, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, China, Europe, U.S, Sweden, United States, downturns, Australia

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - The spectre of rising corporate debt defaults exacerbating a global economic slowdown has for months been largely brushed aside by resilient credit markets. Now, long-feared corporate debt woes are starting to hit home, while more companies are being downgraded to a junk credit rating - facing higher borrowing costs as a result. Retailer Casino, with 6.4 billion euros ($7.19 billion) of net debt, is in court-backed talks with creditors; Britain's Thames Water is in the headlines with its 14 billion pound ($18.32 billion) debt pile. For FACTBOX: Corporate debt woes are on the rise, click here. Nonetheless, not all firms may be able to survive the challenges of vast debt, higher interest and business costs and declining profits.

Persons: Julius Baer's, Markus Allenspach, Guy Miller, Miller, it's, Aymen Mahmoud, McDermott Will, Emery, Elena Lieskovska, Chiara Elisei, Dhara, Christina Fincher Organizations: SBB, P Global, U.S, Reuters, ICE, Zurich Insurance, ABN AMRO, European Central Bank, London Finance, Bain Capital, Thomson Locations: Swedish, Spain, Europe

European stocks (.STOXX) slipped 0.6%, heading for their first daily loss in eight sessions, with German shares (.GDAXI) down the same amount. The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in 47 countries, fell 0.2%. Earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) dropped 0.8% after the China data. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) also fell 0.3% on profit-taking after climbing to three-decade highs. Brent crude futures fell 0.3% to $75.97 a barrel after climbing 2.1% overnight.

Persons: Michael Hewson, Guy Miller, Brent, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Dhara, Sam Holmes, Helen Popper, Christina Fincher Organizations: Global, Federal, Independence, CMC Markets, Reuters, Zurich Insurance Group, U.S, Japan's Nikkei, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, China, U.S, Europe, United States, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Tokyo, Saudi Arabia, Russia, London, Sydney

Wall Street was set for losses, too, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures down 0.2%-0.4%. The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in 47 countries, fell 0.2%. The U.S. dollar drifted near the middle of its range of the past three weeks against major peers, with the dollar index down 0.1% to 102.99, after tracking between 103.75 and 102.75 since early June. Earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) dropped 0.7% after the China data. Brent crude futures fell 0.2% to $76.05 a barrel after climbing 2.1% overnight.

Persons: Michael Hewson, Guy Miller, Brent, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Dhara, Sam Holmes, Helen Popper Our Organizations: Nikkei, Global, Federal, Nasdaq, CMC Markets, Reuters, Zurich Insurance Group, U.S, Japan's Nikkei, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, U.S, United States, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, London, Sydney

☆ Fed 'skip' chatter triggers dollar's biggest weekly fall since January
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Australian dollar surged after an increase in the minimum wage there stoked bets for another raise in rates next week. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, has dropped nearly 0.8% this week, its biggest weekly loss since mid-January. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Thursday "it's time to at least hit the stop button for one meeting and see how it goes", referring to the June 13-14 Fed meeting. Money markets are pricing in a roughly 29% chance of a June hike, down from near 70% earlier in the week. Even if a hike doesn't happen next week, markets expect one by autumn.

Persons: Fiona Cincotta, let's, Patrick Harker, Philip Jefferson, Guy Miller, Christine Lagarde, Joe Biden, Monday's, Ray Attrill, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kevin Buckland, Mark Heinrich, Mark Potter, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, City Index, Philadelphia Fed, Reuters, Zurich Insurance, European Central Bank, U.S . Senate, National Australia Bank, NAB, Traders, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, City, April's, London, Tokyo

The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.5 basis points to 4.043%. "We're just beginning to feel the pain of these much higher interest rates. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The 10-year JGB yield fell to as low as 0.445%, its lowest since April 4, after hovering at 0.465% in the previous session.

☆ World stocks cling to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

European stocks added 0.5% (.STOXX), U.S. equity futures pointed to a positive Wall Street open , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Markets price in a roughly 70% chance of a May hike, having last week priced such a move as a coin toss. Traders still price in rate cuts by year-end as the economic growth outlook weakens, exacerbated by banking turmoil. U.S. March inflation data on Wednesday could provide the next steer for markets on the rate outlook. U.S. Treasury yields edged down on Tuesday, however, , with rate sensitive two-year yields 4 bps lower at 3.96%.

☆ Analysis: Rate rises pile pain on SME firms in U.S. and Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Chiara Elisei | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Summary SME vulnerability to rate hikes gone under radarUS, European credit conditions tighteningUK SMEs especially vulnerable -analystsLONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. and European small and medium-sized (SME) firms may be next to feel the pain of rapid interest rate rises, with analysts and investors warily watching for the impact of tighter credit conditions exacerbated by recent banking turmoil. In the U.S. the average rate that small businesses pay on bank loans rose from around 5% to 7.6% in 2022, and is likely to hit about 9.5% by mid-year, Jefferies analysts estimate. British SMEs, hurt by weak growth, double digit inflation and rising Bank of England rates, are seen as particularly vulnerable. "The Government needs to demonstrate that it is on the side of small businesses who are feeling stressed and under huge margin pressure," McTague added. HARD TIMESMeanwhile the rate of small business loan approval at big U.S. banks meanwhile fell in February for nine straight months and business loan approvals at small banks has also fallen, said online financing platform for small businesses Biz2Credit.

Markets have ramped up bets on further rate increases after the ECB has already tightened monetary policy by 3 percentage points since July. ECB President Christine Lagarde reckons a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike "is very, very likely". "The ECB is prioritising getting policy rates as high as needed and nothing else is as important," Pictet Wealth Management's head of macroeconomic research Frederik Ducrozet, said. Signs of economic resilience suggest ECB growth forecasts, also out on Thursday, could be revised upwards for 2023. Falling energy prices and a stronger euro, up around 6% in trade-weighted terms from August lows, suggest headline inflation forecasts could be revised lower.

Summary U.S. bonds set for worst month since SeptWild swings at start of year may continueLONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - March madness? After a euphoric January was followed by a somber February, with bonds and equities selling off as strong data renewed rate-hike bets, more wild swings could be next for world markets. February fallsData on Friday showing a key inflation U.S. gauge accelerated last month stoked rate hike bets. The ECB lifted its key rate by 300 basis points since last July to 2.5%. If upcoming data weakens, markets could resume their bullishness, Yardeni Research said.

☆ End of easy-cash era is going to hurt
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The end of the easy-cash era is over and its impact yet to be felt on world markets, hopeful that the pain of aggressive rate hikes and high inflation has passed. Reuters Graphics3/ GOING PRIVATEPrivate debt markets have ballooned since the financial crisis to $1.4 trillion from $250 billion in 2010. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/CRYPTO WINTERRising borrowing costs roiled crypto markets in 2022. Reuters Graphics5/FOR SALEReal estate markets, first responders to rate hikes, started cracking last year and 2023 will be tough with U.S. house prices expected to drop 12%. How the sector services its debt is in focus and officials warn European banks risk significant profit hits from sliding house prices.

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